Biden's Failed Hypothesis on the CCP's Economic Woes Deterring an Invasion of Taiwan

Click HERE for full transcript.

-

At the G20 summit this summer, President Joe Biden dismissed concerns that the Chinese Communist Party might attack Taiwan.

He said, “China has a difficult economic problem right now” and “does not have the same capacity that it had before.” 

A belief that China’s economic woes will make it more conciliatory may explain both the tone at this week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit here in San Francisco, and why the administration’s entire China policy has veered away from competition and towards accommodation.

If so, Biden and his team ignore a long history of Authoritarian dictatorships scapegoating others for their shortcomings by launching wars of aggression.

Look no further than Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who responded to eight years of measly 1% average growth following his 2014 seizure of Crimea not by abandoning the path of violence, but by invading the entirety of Ukraine.

Or Imperial Japan which invaded Manchuria in 1931, after a long boom gave way to stagnation, much like in China today.

If Xi Jinping cannot provide jobs for Chinese youth——then a successful conquest of Taiwan might become more, not less desirable.

The CCP leadership may also perceive a narrow window for aggressive expansion before their structural problems grow even worse in the 2030s.

Contrary to President Biden’s hypothesis, as the Chinese economy has slowed, the CCP’s aggression has only increased. 

Vessels from the Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia have rammed Philippine ships in the South China Sea. 

The Chinese military has conducted more than 180 dangerous intercepts of U.S. forces over the past two years.  And the CCP’s threats to Taiwan escalate by the day.

This does not mean that war is inevitable. 

But it does mean that deterrence is in our hands. 

Rather than wagering peace on wishful thinking, American policymakers—from the President on down—must move heaven and earth to deter conflict before it is too late.